My IM history and predictions

I've done 6 IM's over the years:

Race	high temp	Swim	T1	Bike	T2	Run	Overall time	Overall place	AG Place
IM California 2001	69	1:13:41	6:20:00	5:21:30	3:29:00	4:22:52	11:07:51	371/1559	92/299
IM Canada 2002	78	1:13:08	4:57:00	5:18:37	1:44:00	4:17:02	10:55:28	361/1945	90/335
IM CDA 2003	93	1:10:18	4:51:00	5:27:40	5:37:00	5:46:41	12:35:05	494/1344	113/213
IM CDA 2006	89	1:19:18	7:18:00	5:27:45	8:04:00	5:23:32	12:25:56	565/1920	136/340
IM Canada 2007	72	1:18:39	6:11:00	5:32:32	6:01:00	4:49:13	11:52:36	771/2445	154/350
IM Canada 2011	86	1:19:22	10:42:00	5:28:08	3:06:00	4:42:55	11:44:11	532/2565	114/386

I think my swimming is right in line with what I've done in the last 3 races, maybe slightly slower.  I predict a 1:22.

My cycling is simply not as good as it has been in the past.  I contribute this to my lack of bike racing this year (only 2 races!).   But, I HAVE put in all the long miles on the TT bike.   So, with the flat course I predict somewhere between 5:15 - 5:30 on the bike if all goes smoothly.  

With transitions, that should get me to the start of the marathon in just under 7 hours.   That gives me a "chance" to go sub 11 with a decent 4 hour marathon.  Note that my best IM marathon is 4:17.   Things can and often do go really wrong in the IM marathon.  Still, I think it's possible.   I did run 3:09 and 3:10 in my 2 open marathons in the last year, so I SHOULD be able to go under 4.   That's the plan!