Wednesday, November 13, 2013

My IM history and predictions

I've done 6 IM's over the years:

Racehigh tempSwimT1BikeT2RunOverall timeOverall placeAG Place
IM California 2001691:13:416:20:005:21:303:29:004:22:5211:07:51371/155992/299
IM Canada 2002781:13:084:57:005:18:371:44:004:17:0210:55:28361/194590/335
IM CDA 2003931:10:184:51:005:27:405:37:005:46:4112:35:05494/1344113/213
IM CDA 2006891:19:187:18:005:27:458:04:005:23:3212:25:56565/1920136/340
IM Canada 2007721:18:396:11:005:32:326:01:004:49:1311:52:36771/2445154/350
IM Canada 2011861:19:2210:42:005:28:083:06:004:42:5511:44:11532/2565114/386

I think my swimming is right in line with what I've done in the last 3 races, maybe slightly slower.  I predict a 1:22.
My cycling is simply not as good as it has been in the past.  I contribute this to my lack of bike racing this year (only 2 races!).   But, I HAVE put in all the long miles on the TT bike.   So, with the flat course I predict somewhere between 5:15 - 5:30 on the bike if all goes smoothly.  
With transitions, that should get me to the start of the marathon in just under 7 hours.   That gives me a "chance" to go sub 11 with a decent 4 hour marathon.  Note that my best IM marathon is 4:17.   Things can and often do go really wrong in the IM marathon.  Still, I think it's possible.   I did run 3:09 and 3:10 in my 2 open marathons in the last year, so I SHOULD be able to go under 4.   That's the plan!

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